All of Putin’s mistakes in the war in Ukraine: misled by his yes-men?

Of Andrea Marinelli

The analysis of Putin’s strategy by Vincenzo Camporini, former Chief of Staff of the Italian Defense: Superficiality in entering the war. The generals on the front line? Perhaps a sign of deficiencies in the rear

The Russians seemed certain that their army would be greeted with the shedding of rose petals by the Ukrainian population, that the Ukrainian government would flee and that the problem would be solved in 48 hours: so a planned campaign was not needed, he explains to the Courier service
Vincenzo Camporini, 75 years old, former Italian Defense Chief of Staff. If so it is a sign of great superficiality, but also that the Russian intelligence services have given to President Putin information does not correspond to reality on the ground. In any organization the boss likes to be told yesbut what happened during the famous National Security Council meeting where he came the head of the intelligence services was ridiculed Russians Sergei Naryshkin from Putin indicative. The feeling, therefore, that the services reported to the Tsar what he wanted to hear: on the basis of that information, decisions were then made that turned out to be wrong.

The latest news on the war in Ukraine

The delay in the contraviation, which began on Friday

This also serves to include the bombing that began Friday on western cities, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lutsk. I think they are dictated by the need to increase the level of air control, explains Camporini. A military campaign always begins with contraviation: fighter-bombers, escort interceptors and reconnaissance sent to destroy the opponent’s air capabilitiesin flight or on the ground, making airports unusable. Once the enemy is prevented from using his air system, resources are dedicated to supporting the ground troops. This phase in Ukraine has been missed.

The generals on the front line: a sign of shortcomings?

The death of a third Russian general, Andrey Kolesnikov, was confirmed on Friday. According to Camporini, the generals on the front line are a sign of combativeness of Russian cadres, which however shows that there is perhaps a shortage at a lower level. One of the reasons the use of conscript troops: in Russia there is still conscription and the boys are serving 12 months of military service, during which they are sent to operational theaters. In 12 months, what do you teach an 18-year-old boy? Camporini wonders. Just take the shotgun and pull the trigger. You can’t teach him sophisticated tactics and techniques. Just think of the symbiotic relationship between chariots and infantry: the powerful but vulnerable chariot, three men hiding behind a tree are enough and it jumps into the air. There must be collaboration with the infantry, and for this we need automatisms, we need refined training.

The need for new troops (including from the Middle East)

There will be an increase in thrust, also supported by the dispatch of new troops. There is talk of almost 16,000 volunteers arriving from Syria, and of the contingent deployed in Nagorno Karabakh, says Camporini. In this sense we can also interpret the possible arrival of Belarusian troops, which the Ukrainians believe is imminent: the invasion would be Minsk’s response to the alleged air raid that started from Ukraine and which, according to Kiev, would have been planned by Russia. Another way of building the pretext for Lukashenko’s reinforcements to enter the camp. In any case, the arrival of these reinforcements indicates two things: 1) that i initial plans were poorly calibrated; 2) that the forces available on the Russian side are not sufficient: a sign of weakness rather than strength.

Can Putin Win? Any hypothesis will fail

Putin can lose in so many ways. We do not know what he wants, and for this reason we cannot imagine a winning strategy. Any hypothesis, however, collides with the almost certainty of failure, explains General Camporini. If he defeats the Ukrainian army on the ground and returns to Russia, Ukraine will rebel. If he occupies Ukraine permanently would need about half a million men, especially considering that, by bordering on other countries, it is possible to filter supplies to the insurgents, as happened in Afghanistan. Even in the hypothesis that the battle is won, the war is likely to be lost.

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